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Is it THE crisis? Is it THE fall of dollar and of American supremacy? Who knows. I've met recently with people of LaRouche, and they are convinced that the collapse is in the works. This opinion is shared by Ed Steele (see below), while Jim Petras is more cautious. While I share their view of inevitability of THE crisis, I do not know whether it will happen now. 

The Great Financial Crisis or

Who’s Got a Turd in his Briefcase?

 

James Petras

 

            All the major financial analysts claim the ongoing and deepening financial crisis is in large part the result of investor uncertainty.  This is because the investment banks, derivatives and hedge funds placed high risk, sub-prime mortgages and junk bonds, along with other more reliable debt paper into packages and sold them to institutional and private bankers who in turn ‘retailed’ them around the world.

            The rating agencies, who are paid by the sellers, all gave top billing (AA, AAA) to these hybrid securities, mortgages and junk bonds, encouraging investment advisers to push them on to risk-averse client looking for higher returns than Treasury notes.  Most of the investors do not know whose and what paper they are holding, nor how much their hedge funds are losing or have lost.  Those who can, have pulled out.  The banks are reticent to loan to any applicant.  Leverage funds are a dirty word among lenders.  Hedge funds are either selling assets to pay loans or not telling what they own or owe.  Derivatives have been deflowered.  Central Banks in the US, Japan and the European Union have poured (and keep pouring) over $250 billion to the private banks hoping to create liquidity but the banks won’t lend – because, as one prominent banker in Palm Springs told me “Nobody knows who’s got a turd (worthless investments) in his brief case.” 

            Meanwhile, Goldman Sach, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers are all closing down bankrupt investment funds or trying to prop them up.  The Fed props up all the worst speculators in the name of ‘saving the financial system’ - in a way that it would never prop up the failing American health system.  The financial system has the ‘runs’ and infusions of Fed funds have failed to block the ‘run for cover’.

            “Everybody for himself…and don’t look back’, is the watchword of leading equity bankers.   The Democrats are calling for the usual inconsequential Congressional hearings about what went wrong.  Congressmen Levin and Barney Frank will ask the wrong questions to the wrong people – going after the weakest fall guys – the rating agencies – for overrating the fraudulent deals, not the dealmakers themselves.  The ‘turds’ in the briefcases are big and smelly but no one knows how big: $250 billion or $500 billion.  There are a lot of bankers and hedge fund billionaires walking around with invisible clothespins on their noses.

            Where is Greenspan, since he started the whole scam with his low interest, deregulated financial markets?  The homely hero of all hedge-derivatives- innovative financial scamsters sanctioned, approved and promoted the pyramid swindles.  He’s off advising Deutsch Bank and suckering the international bankers for $100,000 fees for his failed financial recipes.  But for those speculators who made a bundle and left, Greenspan is not part of the emerging turd culture.  For them he is still the financial genius who made their fortunes.

            So unless the fund directors come clean, empty their brief cases and open their balance sheets we won’t know who are carrying the turds: The great unknowns include the unredeemable bonds, the worthless mortgages and the illiquid hedge funds.  Without knowledge of the size and scope of the turds, the great uncertainty has frozen most investments and loans – it is paralyzing the financial system.  Even Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the federally-funded mortgage companies) can’t come in and buy up the ‘turds’ (otherwise known as ‘bad debts’), no matter how many hundreds of billions of US taxpayers’ money they are willing to spend.

            All the financial wizards, the super-smart scientific, mathematical, guaranteed 30% per year investment advisers have less credibility than a street corner con man.  The most arrogant, pretentious, scientific speculators have been humbled; especially those oracles who practiced what is call among the insiders as ‘Quantitative investment’.

            Quantitative investing (QI), the use of complex computer models in making investment decisions, was used and promoted by some of the reputedly smartest and highest regarded ‘gurus’ of Wall Street.  For a decade the complex mathematical modeling produced extraordinary profits for Renaissance funds, Goldman Sachs and numerous other asset managers and hedge funds.  With the massive sell-offs of assets to pay debts and the desperate drive for liquidity, all the assumptions of the QI went out the window.  “The Model” cannot account for any crisis which calls into question ‘historical trends’.  The best and the brightest are baffled.  At first, the QI geniuses said the crisis was a localized problem for the sub-prime bottom-dwelling speculators.   But as their own funds dropped they blamed hysterical investors who over-reacted.  “A problem of perceptions”, they psychologized.  But their funds continued to decline: the Market wasn’t acting as their ‘model’ dictated.  Hearsay flourished, skeptics surged. 

“What’s the problem:  The Market or the Model?”, one QI practitioner asked his colleagues. 

The answer from the Market: “It’s the model stupid: All the QI use historical models that extrapolated past patterns into the future as if capitalism is a crisis-free system which changed incrementally and in which investors borrowed rationally to leverage purchases in line with their capacity to pay back any losses.  That’s Main-Street folklore for retail brokers and the daily fare of American Enterprise ideologues.”

Scientific mathematical modeling in the Great Casino predictably turned out to be as fallible as numerology spun by Shamans to explain the life cycle.

No one’s going out of the window of the upper stories of high rise offices – yet.  What’s keeping the suicide rate down is precisely what’s keeping investors running: no one knows how many hundreds of billions in worthless paper is being held.  With the demise of the mathematical modeling speculative science, we are now in the period of the Mystical Black Hole. The big investment houses and hedge funds are holding back on revelations, hoping that investment confidence will return if investors are kept in the dark about how much they lost.  This is a step below Voodoo Economics.  How can investor confidence return if they don’t know if the big turds are in the briefcase of the Renaissance Funds, Goldman Sachs, First Quadrant or any one or all of a thousand and one Ali Baba hedge funds? 

Let them lose their pants, writes orthodox Market pundits like Marty Wolf in the Financial Times.  “In order to value risk, they should lose properly.  To bail them out”, they argue, “is a moral hazard.”  Meaning of course, that if the hype and scam speculators are covered by a Federal Bank bail out, they lose nothing, and will repeat swindling in the future.  Bailouts are a formula for financial scam recidivism.  So much, alas, for the advice of orthodox market experts.  European Central Banks and the US Federal Reserve know what class they represent:  Real existing speculator plungers, not textbook risk-calculating value-oriented entrepreneurs, are their reference group.  The risk of letting the bad boys sink is that there are too many of them, working in most of the most powerful investment houses, managing too many funds, for the most powerful financiers. 

“There are no good financiers and bad speculators”, one philosophically inclined fund manager (who is likely carrying a turd) put it, “We are all in this together, if we sink so does the whole financial system.”  Is this a self-interested plea for financial solidarity, a closet Marxist or a prophet of doom?  Nobody knows till we delve into the Black Hole of the financial crisis.  That won’t happen till the brief cases open.

 


www.ConspiracyPenPa l.com
Tipping Point
(Gold:  $300 Trillion per ounce?)
by Edgar J. Steele
August 22, 2007 
"Smoke smoke smoke that cigarette.
Puff puff puff and if you smoke yourself to death,
Tell St Peter at the Golden Gate
That you hate to make him wait,
But you just gotta have another cigarette."
  --- Smoke, Smoke, Smoke That Cigarette (Merle Travis and Tex Ritter)
My name is Edgar J. Steele.

I believe that America, finally, has achieved critical mass and simultaneously has reached or is approaching her "tipping point" regarding a great many issues.

Tipping points inherently are deceptive.  Overtly, one perceives a sudden, dramatic shift, often without notice.  Unlike schoolyard teeter-totters, however, the required force usually is not applied all at once.  Let me give you a personal example.

When I was younger and even more foolish than today, I smoked cigarettes.  "Everybody did it," as they say, in those days.  Gradually, my disgust with the habit outgrew the coolness that I imagined cigarettes imparted, Bogart-like, to my image, but smoking had become an ingrained, habituated ritual and physical addiction. 

Incidentally, most people tend to overlook the ritualistic significance of handling cigarettes, which is why, I believe, most find it so difficult to quit smoking.  The physical nicotine addiction, which is surmounted in about three days, is the least of it.

For years, I would quit, then start again ... and again ... and again.  Sound familiar?  Toward the end of my addiction, I even changed brands to one that I didn't like at all ("Advantage, " which was like smoking old, rolled-up newspaper compared to my beloved/hated charcoal-filter Tareytons).  Yet, I continued to put them away, two packs or more, each and  every day.

I remember clearly the moment I reached my cigarette tipping point:  I was navigating a troublesome 5-way intersection in Oakland, California during rush hour, signaling, looking around, dodging other cars, shifting gears, turning the wheel and juggling a cigarette that slipped from my fingers.  Smokers are all-too-familiar with this situation, source of countless burnt spots in clothing, upholstery, carpentry and assorted body parts.  Once through that intersection without killing anybody, I snagged up the smoldering butt.  Looking at what had become my very last cigarette with the sort of disgust so many of us feel concerning George Bush these days, I stubbed it out in the overflowing ashtray.  I haven't had a cigarette in nearly 40 years.  Not once, in all that time, have I wanted one.

Other smokers began to challenge me enviously, then, as it became clear that I was well clear, asking how I had managed to quit so easily - so effortlessly.  I tried to tell them about my years of growing disgust, but could not point to any single thing, not even that brief moment in traffic when I reached my tipping point, that helped them out of their habit. 

Others thought that I was hiding some powerful secret.  To them, I quit overnight.  I knew better.  I simply had reached the point where my desire not to smoke had overtaken my desire to smoke and, just like that, overtly manifested what had been building for years.  To me, it was a long, drawn-out process, fraught with countless false starts and too much effort to describe.  To them, I had captured lightning in a bottle. 

Almost always, tipping points are like my conversion from smoker to non-smoker.  Things seem so normal, so unchanging, for so long, despite nagging warnings and recurrent little signs to the contrary.  Suddenly, a tipping point is reached and lasting change occurs.  A stock market crashes.  A currency hyper inflates.  Economic depression befalls entire nations.  World War suddenly erupts from some small regional conflict.  Infection becomes epidemic.  History is replete with examples.

 Only the Reality of Change Never Changes

In fact, if there is one thing that history should teach us, it is that the status quo - always - is only temporary.  Why should today be any different?  Why should America escape the fate of every empire that has fallen before her time?

The signs of imminent change are everywhere today and seem, just recently, to have accelerated, both in frequency and in number.  Individually, the tipping points heaving into view are manageable.  Problem is, the accretion of imminent tipping points worldwide and, particularly, in America is mind boggling:

America's war effort in Iraq is on the verge of total collapse, despite media reports to the contrary.  Yet we are about to invade Iran?

The Russian Bear once again has emerged, is heavily patrolling outside its own borders with nuclear-armed bombers and ships and has strongly warned both Israel and America not to interfere in Iran.

The mortgage market is on the verge of total collapse, as indicated by the sudden failure of not-so-subprime lenders in addition to a raft of lower-rung mortgage companies.  Yet, that sea of Adjustable Rate Mortgages has only just begun to ratchet up from their teaser rates.

Home foreclosures have doubled in the past year alone (and foreclosures have been posting new annual records for a while now).

Because most money market accounts and a great many financial derivatives are backed solely by home mortgages, packaged in different ways and with impressive-sounding names, people and institutions are dropping commercial paper like hot potatoes.

Now that all laws against banking usury have been suspended, just wait until enough Americans see their credit card balances being charged interest at the rate of 36% for being a day late with a single payment or, perhaps, merely going over their limit a few dollars.

Bankruptcy no longer is an option for most Americans, due to changes in the law secretly emplaced by Congress doing the bidding of the banking industry.  This will be interesting as we find out if they intend to reinstitute debtors' prisons.  At least, it will be a way to get a meal ("Please, sir, may I have some more porridge?")

Derivatives in general and hedge funds, in particular, are on the verge of total collapse, just as so many hedge funds already quietly have been subsumed by their own industry and government (but, I repeat myself).

The stock market should have crashed long ago and shows signs now of growing beyond the control, even, of the plunge protection team composed of banking industry and government people (but, again I repeat myself).

The Choice:  Stock Market Crash or Stock Market Crash

Many say that interest rates must increase, else the dollar will disappear into hyperinflation, with the market crashing into nonsensical dollar values.  If interest rates are increased, however, the resultant increased cost of doing business alone will crash the market. 

Given how far the market has been stretched by the outrageously expansionary monetary policies of ex-Federal Reserve Chairman "Easy Al" Greenspan and, now, "WhirlyBen" Bernanke, a crash, whether controlled or in a rush, is unavoidable.  Nothing - nothing - can save the stock market now.

Remember that financial markets can crash upwards, too.  It just requires a measuring currency that devalues faster than the market appreciates.  In fact, America's stock market has been crashing upwards for years, already.

The Lesson of History is Lost on Everyone

As always, history would be instructive if we would but pay attention.  Not just those who fail to study history are doomed to repeat it, as America's current plight has been experienced, time and again, by each and every single empire since the dawn of civilization.  Similarly, if one would but see, the path ahead clearly is set out by the recorded experience of those past empires.  It isn't pretty.

Let's focus on just one such experience, that of post-WWI Germany.  Not the same, you say?  Germany was a defeated nation, saddled with crushing war reparation payments and overseen by hostile, foreign interests, after all.  Fair enough objection.  Let's dispel it. 

The Usual Suspects ... Again

Time does not allow full development of the concept in this space, but suffice to say that America, too, is a defeated nation (subject of the slow, rolling coup that broke into the open with the assassination of JFK) and now is overseen by hostile, foreign interests in the form of the usual suspects:  the globalists ... central bankers ... some might even say Jews.  And that is just the beginning of the similarities.

Now, you stop right there!  I saw that grimace cross your face.  I heard you mutter in disgust, "Just another anti-Semitic screed."  Perhaps.  Perhaps not.  Try to keep an open mind, because it is impossible to pin the tail on this donkey with euphemisms like "central bankers" or, even, "Zionists."

Discussing America's impending disaster without using the J-word is like trying to describe the phenomenon of Elvis impersonators without using the E-word.  In an absurd mixture of metaphor and mostly just for fun, visit www.jewishelvis. com and listen to Jelvis sing "Blue Suede Yarmulke."

Ahem ... now, seriously, one absolutely must understand the tribal and clannish Jewish mentality that places race ahead of country, always in fear of being displaced, always needing total control, always creating its own opposition and persecution and always ... always overreaching, thereby leading to ejection or destruction.

Just as Germany nearly a century ago was saddled with Jewish bankers and governmental overseers following the Versailles Treaty, so is America governed today.  The import of this fact goes well beyond coincidence.

America's Federal Reserve Bank is foreign owned (primarily Jewish), just as was post-WWI Germany's Reichsbank. 

America's government thoroughly is in the hands of Jewish interests, just as was post-WWI Germany's. 

America's media today is entirely owned and run by Jewish interests and is used primarily as a tool of social engineering via propaganda, just like post-WWI Germany.

America today is saddled with crushing financial obligations she cannot meet, both at home and abroad.  Before much longer, every single dollar taken in via tax collections will be spent merely on government interest payments.  America quite literally never can repay her debts.  Just like Germany nearly a century ago.

Just like Germany of the 1920s, America has begun to create money infinitely and very recently has made clear her intent to continue to do so.

If you seriously doubt any one of the foregoing propositions, then you simply haven't been paying attention and you need to do some fundamental spadework, which the Internet makes so easy.  Incidentally, if you disbelieve anything I just have told you and don't do this basic research, if only in an attempt to discredit me, then you are a fool and I wash my hands of you.

Economic Tipping Points

That's the background.  Now, here's the setup:

Germany's Reichsbank literally poured money into the German economy, starting in 1914 and then accelerating in earnest in 1919, both directly and by letting all true German street banks create money through lending and fractional-reserve banking.  Just like America today.

The German government was run for the internationalist purposes of its Jewish masters, leading to an inflationary economy, decreasing morality and so many other indicia of America today.  So much money was created that the amount in foreign hands lent itself to international speculative short selling of the Mark.  Just like America today. 

Germany's tipping point came when a critical mass of the Mark enabled the foreign speculation.  The speculative short selling, soon to begin with American dollars, marked the beginning of Germany's inexorable march into hyperinflation.

Between 1914 and 1919, the value of the German mark versus the American dollar fell from 4:1 to 8:1 (25 cents to about 12 cents), a decline of 50% in just five years. 

Now, consider the fact that, between 2002 and 2006, also a span of just five years, the American dollar fell 50%, as well, during which time average American wages actually fell slightly in unadjusted dollars (thus, a halving of the American standard of living, but for the real estate bubble that enabled Americans to use home equity as a source of funds).

It was at just the point America finds herself today that Germany reached her economic tipping point:  the Reichsbank opened the monetary floodgates (just as the Fed did within the past week) and the Mark began to spiral out of control into hyperinflation. 

One year later, during 1920, the Mark was worth but 2 cents (50:1).  In 1921, the Mark brought slightly more than one penny (100:1).  In 1922, true hyperinflation set in and it took 1000 Marks to buy a single American dollar.  In 1923, with the end in sight, the ratio quickly soared from 18,000:1 to 4 trillion Marks to 1 dollar!

Gold:  $300 Trillion per Ounce?

From tipping point to oblivion in just four years.  If the parallel holds true, then gold should be worth $3,000 per ounce later in 2008, $75,000 in 2009, $750,000 in 2010 and $300 trillion per ounce sometime in 2012. 

Could this really happen in America?  Yes, though probably not so dramatically.  Once a tipping point is reached, don't forget, things can appear to change almost overnight.  But, consider merely the effect of the dollar falling by half yet again during the next few years - and I absolutely guarantee you that the decline will be far greater than half.

As I first foresaw long ago (and, in truth, wrote Defensive Racism to sound the warning), the coming economic debacle will make the Great Depression look like a church picnic and cause us to start numbering our economic depressions, just as we now do for widespread warfare.  At the time, many called me a loon for predicting that Depression II was coming.  Today, the possibility is openly discussed on CNBC, of all places.

In the process, the American middle class will be eliminated, just as last century in Germany:  "Annuities, pensions, proceeds of insurance policies, savings accounts in the banks, income from bonds and mortgages - every form of revenue which had been arranged for at some time in the past, and which often represented the economy, foresight, and personal planning of many years - now turned to nothing. The middle class was pauperized and demoralized. " ("A History of the Modern World," Palmer, et al., 9th Ed., 2002)

At about the time of Germany's tipping point, one obscure German observer noted that, "The government calmly goes on printing these scraps of paper because, if it stopped, that would be the end of the government.  Because once the printing presses stopped - and that is the prerequisite for the stabilization of the mark - the swindle would at once be brought to light.  Believe me, our misery will increase. The scoundrel will get by. The reason: because the State itself has become the biggest swindler and crook.  A robbers' state!?  If the horrified people notice that they can starve on billions, they must arrive at this conclusion: we will no longer submit to a State which is built on the swindling idea of the majority.  We want a dictatorship. "  Years later, that obscure observer rose to international acclaim, even being named Time Magazine's 1938 Man of the Year, when his foresight was proven true.  His name?  Adolf Hitler.

Happen to know of anybody who, in recent years, has remarked repeatedly about America needing a dictator?

What's the Point of Having a Police State if You Don't Use It?

Do you think our masters don't pay attention to history?  Do you think they aren't readying the framework to restrain the great American masses who can be expected to rise up, just as did the Germans, nearly a century ago?  If not, then you tell me just what all this Patriot Act and American police state hooha is for, then.  It is not to protect you and me.  It is to protect them from you and me. 

How best to prevent having a truly effective dictator like Hitler rise up on behalf of the common man?  Why - have your own stooge dictator already in place, of course.  How on earth do you think that somebody as patently stupid as George Bush possibly could have attained the Presidency?  Bush may think he is the man and I see a great many Internet commentators openly fearing his canceling the upcoming election, but I see no danger of that happening. 

Only stooges vetted by AIPAC and the ADL are allowed to vie for the American Presidency.  Therefore, they can give us regular elections, thereby providing the illusion of democracy, while all the time maintaining a firm grip on the levers of power.  Bush is just a place marker stooge, readily interchangeable with Clinton, Obama, Giuliani, Romney and so many others who already have sold their souls to Israel for their place at the trough.

How else do you think we so thoroughly could have tossed out the Republican congressional miscreants during the last mid-term election, thinking we would get change, only to get a Democrat-controlled House and Senate that both go against predominant American stated desires even more than their Republican predecessors?  Obviously, they are responding to someone other than the electorate!

Will there be world war?  Of course.  They must have something to distract us and to blame for our coming economic misfortune.  When?  Soon.  Very soon.  Of course, that is just another historical profit opportunity for the international banking interests who truly own and run America as they get yet another opportunity to sell and lend to both sides at once, then pick up the pieces afterward at pennies on the dollar.

The American Tipping Point

Economic reports of just the past couple of weeks demonstrate that a critical mass has been attained.  I believe that America now has reached her economic tipping point and, from the perspective of history written a hundred years from now, seemingly overnight the American landscape will be seen to have changed forever.  "But things look so normal," you may protest.  Yes, but I predict that America in a year or two will look very different.

There is No Hope

Do not look to the system for any sort of meaningful change.  Voting is rigged.  Everything is rigged.  Of the current announced Presidential candidates, only one would effect meaningful change:  Ron Paul.  I hesitate to endorse the man because I so like him. 

I firmly believe that, if the current media disinformation campaign fails and Ron Paul actually becomes a leading contender, they simply will kill him as they have so many before (Huey Long and Robert Kennedy come to mind).  If elected and he lives through to his inauguration and refuses to knuckle under, they simply will kill him then, just as they did JFK. 

Make no mistake - Ron Paul would make a great President, but it simply ain't gonna happen, folks.  But, he says he wants the job, so he's got my vote, regardless.

Possibilities

There are possibilities, but none of them are pretty. 

Perhaps America will get nuked into submission by a world tired of being bullied at every turn.  Once backed by gold, then by oil, the dollar today is backed by America's nuclear arsenal.  Do what we say and use the dollar to transact international business or we will bomb you into rubble.  Just ask Iraq.  A nuclear exchange, finally, will pull America's trump card.

Perhaps a popular revolt will take hold and make meaningful inroads, despite the militarization of local police forces.  This latter possibility will require our reaching a political tipping point, marked by government troops machine gunning citizens wholesale in the streets.

 From our perspective how much longer do we have before we can expect significant overt change?  If this were being televised, I would look at my watch to drive home the point.  Maybe weeks.  Maybe months.  Maybe even a year or two more, but that is pushing it.  Certainly, by 2012 you will not recognize America, if she exists at all by then. 

So there you have it.  We're doomed.  The only question is whether our current masters will be able to hold on through the coming economic tsunami about to sweep over America and the rest of the world.  I'm betting they won't.  After all, we know where they live. 

Mark my words well:  one day we will come for them, drag them out and line them up against a wall - after a fair trial, of course.

New America.  An idea whose time has come.

My name is Edgar J. Steele.  Thanks for listening.  Please visit my web site, www.ConspiracyPenPa l.com, for other messages just like this one.

-ed



Copyright ©2004, 2007, Edgar J. Steele

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