The second month of Ukraine War was quite slow moving. Line of contact hardly moved. Ukrainians fought insistently. After one month, the most important event was not a military victory, but financial one. Russians couldn’t sell their oil and gas for euro or dollars. Putin ordered to sell gas for roubles. This is the end of sanctions: Putin turned sanctions upside down. Europeans complained: they say it’s unfair. They proposed to buy gas but to keep Euros on a closed account. They say it would be fair, but Russians refused this scheme. Rouble is going up, dollar and euro are going down to pre-war values.
The Poles plan to enter the war and snatch Western Ukraine. It was part of Poland before the WW2. Before Stalin joined it to Soviet Ukraine. Now is the time to restore it to Poland, decided Poles. Poles think it is the time; some Russians agree, and some Russians disagree. Russia has no interest to keep Galicia.
Hungarians want to restore Hungary rule over Western Ukraine. And Romania, too! Then Ukraine will be divided between its four neighbours; Poland, Hungary, Romania and Russia.
NATO planned to enter the war; but didn’t after all. Kosovo is not a part of Ukraine, but Serbia claims it. They say, if Russians claim Crimea, they can claim Kosovo. And China can claim Taiwan. (China claims Taiwan but softly.)
Why the war began? The problem started with a Putin’s complaint. The Russian president wanted NATO to roll back from Eastern Europe to old Soviet borders. The Ukrainian President wanted NATO to stand firm. As the result, Ukrainians were supported by NATO. Russia expected it, and began the war.
The atrocities (Ukrainian upon Russian) are a part of Banderite tactics. Even in 1944 they did it many times, and Ukrainians suffered the results. We know of these tactics, though Mr Khrushchev tried to silence the horror. He sided with Ukrainians, and released captive Banderites. Yesterday in Istanbul there were a peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Surprisingly, the peace talks were successful. The sides agreed to lay off Kiev.
The Russians lost many soldiers; so did the Ukrainians. Now people can’t understand what was the reason for war. Putin is known as hard-line politician; why did he agree to cease-fire? Or maybe he didn’t? In a day or two, we shall know. Today, it’s not clear. Some people claim the agreement of Mr Medinsky with Mr Zelensky is the agreement of Russia and Ukraine; others deny it. Rouble rally is the result, they say.
Very dubious result, anyway. Russia will retreat from this agreement; or will interpret it differently. Rouble is now pegged to gold at 5000 Rouble per gram.