Israel Shamir

The Fighting Optimist

The Invasion

After many requests, Russia invaded Ukraine. We all were mistaken; we thought the invasion wouldn’t happen. But it did. The Russian logic is straightforward: if NATO would come that close to Moscow, Russia won’t be able to defend oneself. Time of arrival of a NATO missile from here is 5 minutes. Russia wanted to have a written promise of Ukraine that it will keep out of NATO. The Ukraine refused. Invasion, called The Special Operation, like in Israel, is supposed to eliminate military structures and to impose a friendly-to-Russia government. The army will fight in silk gloves; it won’t cause damage; residential buildings aren’t bombed. That was the idea. Reality was different.

NATO was supposed to bomb Russia, even next day. (9th of March is an improved version). Putin came first, maybe one day only. The information war started right away. Financial war, as well. NATO had blocked trade with Russia. The US called back all civilian airplanes, in leasing in Russia. Russians had no their own planes: only leased ones. Russia divided its forces into four groups: Z, V, O, U. Group Z pushed Ukrainian forces from Donbas and moved towards Odessa. Another group moved to Kharkov and Kiev. The first group seized water channel that carried water to Crimea. It was blocked since 2014, and Crimea had no water.

Ukrainians threatened Russians with nuclear bombs; Russians threatened NATO with their bombs. NATO states were scared by nukes. Sanctions threatened Russia; Russian counter-sanctions threaten livelihood of the West. Russia is the big producer of wheat and fertilizers; if they are boycotted, countries of the Third World will starve.

The world as we know is falling apart in front of our eyes; Russia is too big and too well integrated, thanks to previous round of sanctions (in 2014). Now, every sanction backfired. Companies rolled sanctions back. Toyota began to trade their cars, after a week break. Russians like premium cars, and they can afford it. Now they have again Toyota Lexus.

President Biden was scared by revelation: in the Ukraine, 19 bioweapon labs were discovered. Imported from the US, their discovery triggered the war. Russian Defence Ministry published documents, related to those labs. The Russian case grew stronger. Victoria Nuland is hesitant: she does not want the Russians to make it public. Biden decided to stop purchases of Russian oil: Europeans are in distress. Their oil is too expensive. They freeze in their houses and European governments advise them to lower temperature by some degrees instead of certifying gas pipeline.

Actual fighting petered out. Just threats. Zelensky said he wants to keep neutrality; and keep NATO outside of the Ukraine. Actually this is what Putin wanted. The sides can come to agreement. Israeli Prime Minister came to Russia and Ukraine to mediate. Two meetings passed inconclusive.

Russia suffered information attack, from all mass media of the West. They tell all nasty stories about Russia, killing civilians and raping women. Ukrainian refugees in Poland number two million; and they annoy natives. Good side: the COVID-19 withdrew its viruses from Ukraine and Russia. In Russia Covid is gone from the news.

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