Israel Shamir

The Fighting Optimist

The War That Wasn’t Fought

The Ukraine crisis bewilders Russians. And Europeans, too. Putin says he does not want to invade Ukraine. NATO has no proof Russia prepares invasion. If Ukraine prepares an attack, it will lose its statehood, Putin says. NATO demands Russia withdraw its 100,000 troops from Ukraine’s vicinity. Russia says the troops are stationed on its territory.

American, Israeli, European media says Russian invasion imminent, and calls its citizens to return home. Russians ask why should they invade now, if they didn’t invade in 2014. Nothing changed to worse since that date. Yes, the things became clear since that time, but not worse.

Every development had been seen through Ukraine prism. Even Kazakhstan had been explained as a part of Putin/Biden plan for Ukraine. The US activated Kazakhstan plot, Russians said; the Kazakhstan plot was Russian, Americans said. Russians said: the US opened Second Front; the US said, Russians added confusion. Only later it was cleared that it was a fight between ethnic subgroops.

The US demanded leave Ukraine inviolate; Russians agreed. The US does not believe it. Putin said that he does not intend to fight Ukraine as Ukrainians and Russians are one nation. Ukrainians said it is two nations.

NATO is convinced Russians want to grab Ukraine. Russians say they do not want. They would do it in 2014; that would be easier. Ukrainian president agreed with NATO. But he changed his mind: he says that such prognoses could be self-fulfilling.

Gas price is the background for this conflict. Green policy brought price hike. Gas became expensive; the Russians offered Europeans gas from pipeline that would . The US offered their own gas instead. That was the trouble behind the Ukraine crisis. The Ukraine suffers from the gas shortage and price rise.

Threat of Russian invasion influences foreign capital flows. Europeans do not want to risk their moneys. Ukraine finds itself without investments. The US called home its diplomats. Israel, NATO states and the UK also called diplomats home. When the tension was at its maximum, the French PM entered the play, he visited Moscow and carried 6 hours long talk with Putin.

That time Biden said he knows for certain Putin will attack at 16 February 2022. From Saturday 12 February England forbade its insurance companies to ensure flights over Ukraine. The sky over Ukraine is incredibly empty- no air liners, no private jets.

Russians are convinced there will be no war, anyway. The US will have to start war themselves. They send weapons to Kiev, hoping Mr Zelensky will employ them. Ukraine unloaded ambassadors, and they went home. Zelensky demands proofs – date and size.

It seems Ukraine and Russia do not want war; only the US and the UK. This is Chinese conclusion; US provocation. 16th came and gone. Chinese conclusion: Russians & Ukrainians do not want to fight.

There were many funny items in news, as media tried to please their owners. One of the best was the claim that Putin waits for Biden to deliver weapons. Now this farce is over; for the last accord Russian Parliament recommended Putin to recognize the split republics. That is the end of the war that was not fought.

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